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November 24, 2013

The Battle of the Titans

By Uri Avnery

Source:  Gush Shalom

THIS IS not merely a fight between Israel and the US. Nor is it only a fight between the
White House and Congress. It is also a battle between intellectual titans.

On the one side there are the two renowned professors, Stephen Walt and John
Mearsheimer. On the other, the towering international intellectual Noam Chomsky.

It’s all about whether the dog wags the tail or the tail wags the dog.

SIX YEARS ago the two professors shocked the US (and Israel) when they published
a book, “The Israel lobby and US Foreign Policy”, in which they asserted that the
foreign policy of the United States of America, at least in the Middle East, is practically
controlled by the State of Israel.

To paraphrase their analysis, Washington DC is in effect an Israeli colony. Both the
Senate and the House of Representatives are Israeli occupied territories, much like
Ramallah and Nablus.

This is diametrically opposed to the assertion of Noam Chomsky that Israel is a US
pawn, used by American imperialism as an instrument to promote its interests.

(I commented at the time that both sides were right, and that this is a unique dog-tail
relationship. I even quoted the old Jewish joke about the rabbi who tells a plaintiff that
he is right, and then says the same to the defendant. “But they can’t both be right!”
remonstrates his wife. “You are right, too!” he answers.)

INTELLECTUAL THEORIES can seldom be put to a laboratory test. But this one can.

It is happening now. Between Israel and the US a crisis has developed, and it has
come into the open.

It’s about the putative Iranian nuclear bomb. President Barack Obama is determined
to avert a military showdown. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is determined to
prevent a compromise.

For Netanyahu, the Iranian nuclear effort has become a defining issue, even an
obsession. He talks about it incessantly. He has declared that it is an “existential”
threat to Israel, that it poses the possibility of a second Holocaust. Last year he made
an exhibition of himself at the UN General Assembly meeting with his childish drawing
of the bomb.

Cynics say that this is only a trick, a successful gimmick to divert the world’s attention
away from the Palestinian issue. And indeed, for years now the Israeli policy of
occupation and settlements has has been advancing quietly, away from the limelight.

But in politics, one gimmick can serve several purposes at once. Netanyahu is serious
about the Iranian bomb. The proof: on this issue he is ready to do something that no
Israeli prime minister has ever dared to do before: endanger Israeli-American

This is a momentous decision. Israel is dependent on the US in almost every respect.
The US pays Israel a yearly tribute of at least three billion dollars, and in fact much
more. It gives us state of the art military equipment. Its veto protects us from UN
Security Council censure, whatever we do.

We have no other unconditional friend in the world, except, perhaps, the Fiji Islands.

If there is one thing on which practically all Israelis agree, it is this subject. A break
with the US is unthinkable. The US-Israeli relationship is, to use a Hebrew expression
much loved by Netanyahu , “the rock of our existence”.

So what does he think he is doing?

NETANYAHU WAS brought up in the US. There he attended high school and
university. There he started his career.

He does not need advisors on US affairs. He considers himself the smartest expert of

He is no fool. Neither is he an adventurer. He bases himself on solid assessments. He
believes that he is able to win this fight.

You could say that he is an adherent of the Walt-Mearsheimer doctrine.

His present moves are based on the assessment that in a straight confrontation
between Congress and the White House, Congress will win. Obama, already blooded
by other issues, will be beaten, even destroyed.

True, Netanyahu was proved wrong the last time he tried something like this. During
the last presidential elections, he openly supported Mitt Romney. The idea was that
the Republicans were bound to win. The Jewish casino baron, Sheldon Adelson,
poured money into their campaign, while at the same time maintaining an Israeli mass-
circulation daily for the sole purpose of supporting Netanyahu.

Romney “couldn’t lose” - but he did. This should have been a lesson for Netanyahu,
but he didn’t absorb it. He is now playing the same game, but for vastly higher stakes.

WE ARE now in the middle of the fight, and it is still too early to predict the outcome.

The Jewish pro-Israel lobby, AIPAC, supported by other Jewish and Evangelical
organizations, is marshalling its forces on Capitol Hill. It’s an impressive show.

Senator after Senator, Congressman after Congressman comes forward to support
the Israeli government against their own president. The same people who jumped up
and down like string puppets when Netanyahu made his last speech before both
houses of Congress, try to outdo each other in assertions of their undying loyalty to

This is now done in the open, in an exhibition of shamelessness. Several Senators
and Congressmen declare publicly that they have been briefed by the Israeli
intelligence services, and they trust them more than the intelligence agencies of the
USA. Not one of them said the opposite.

This would have been unthinkable if any other country was involved, say Ireland or
Italy, from which many Americans are descended. The “Jewish State” stands unique, a
kind of inverse anti-Semitism.

Indeed, some Israeli commentators have joked that Netanyahu believes in the
Protocols of the Elders of Zion, the famous - and infamous - tract fabricated by the
secret police of the Czar. It purported to expose a sinister conspiracy of the Jews to
rule the world. A hundred years later, controlling the US comes near to that.

The senators and representatives are no fools (not all of them, in any case). They
have a clear purpose: to be re-elected. They know on which side their bread is
buttered. AIPAC has demonstrated, in several test cases, that it can unseat any
senator or congressman who does not toe the straight Israeli line. One sentence of
implied criticism of Israeli policies suffices to doom a candidate.

Politicians prefer open shame and ridicule to political suicide. No kamikaze pilots in

This is not a new situation. It is at least several decades old. What is new is that it is
now out in the open, without embellishment.

IT IS difficult to know, as of now, how much the White House is cowed by this

Obama and his Secretary of State John Kerry know that American public opinion is
dead set against any new war in the Middle East. Compromise with Iran is in the air.
This is supported by almost all the world’s powers. Even the French tantrums, which
have no clear purpose but to throw their supposed weight around, are not serious.

President Francois Hollande was received in Israel this week like the harbinger of the
Messiah. If one closed one’s eyes, one could imagine that the happy old pre-de
Gaulle days were back again, when France armed Israel, supplied it with its military
atomic reactor and the two countries went on escapades together (the ill-fated 1956
Suez adventure.)

But if Obama & Kerry hold fast and stay their course on Iran, can Congress impose
the opposite course? Could this turn into the most serious constitutional crisis in US

As a sideshow, Kerry is going on with his effort to impose on Netanyahu a peace he
does not want. The Secretary of State did succeed in pushing Netanyahu into “final
status negotiations” (nobody dared to utter the word peace, God forbid), but nobody
in Israel or Palestine believes that anything will come out of this. Unless, of course, the
White House puts the whole might of the US behind the effort – and that seems more
than unlikely.

Kerry has allotted nine months to the endeavor, as if it were a normal pregnancy. But
the chances of a baby emerging at the end of it are practically nil. During the first
three months, the sides have not progressed a single step.

So who will win? Obama or Netanyahu? Chomsky or Walt/Mearsheimer?

As commentators love to say: Time Will Tell.

In the meantime, place your bets.